war closes 2029-01-20
US-Iran nuclear deal? — Before Jan 20, 2029
32%
Yes +212
No -212
war closes 2027-01-01
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran this year? — Yes
5%
Yes +1900
No -1900
war closes 2030-01-01
Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan? — Before Jan 1, 2030
38%
Yes +163
No -163
war closes 2027-01-01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16%
Yes +506
No -506
war closes 2027-10-27
Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? — Gadi Eizenkot
55%
Yes -122
No +122
war closes 2026-10-01
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
97%
Yes -3348
No +3348
war closes 2026-09-14
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?
30%
Yes +239
No -239
war closes 2026-12-31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
20%
Yes +388
No -388
war closes 2027-01-01
What countries will Marco Rubio visit this year? — Ukraine
29%
Yes +245
No -245
war closes 2030-01-01
When will Xi Jinping visit Taiwan? — Before 2030
21%
Yes +376
No -376
war closes 2026-10-01
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
43%
Yes +133
No -133
war closes 2029-01-20
Will Trump recognize Taiwan? — Before Jan 20, 2029
16%
Yes +525
No -525
war closes 2026-09-30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
88%
Yes -770
No +770
war closes 2027-01-01
Will the Department of Defense be renamed the Department of War by law this year? — Yes
38%
Yes +163
No -163
war closes 2026-10-01
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
1%
Yes +8991
No -8991
war closes 2027-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
22%
Yes +344
No -344
war closes 2026-12-31
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
28%
Yes +251
No -251
war closes 2026-09-30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
8%
Yes +1076
No -1076
war closes 2026-10-31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
74%
Yes -292
No +292
war closes 2027-01-01
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
18%
Yes +456
No -456
war closes 2026-11-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
8%
Yes +1076
No -1076
war closes 2026-12-31
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
8%
Yes +1076
No -1076
war closes 2026-10-01
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
10%
Yes +852
No -852
war closes 2026-09-30
Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?
18%
Yes +471
No -471
war closes 2026-12-31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
62%
Yes -167
No +167
war closes 2027-01-01
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
10%
Yes +953
No -953
war closes 2026-09-15
Will Iran target Syria by September 15, 2026?
2%
Yes +5782
No -5782
war closes 2026-12-31
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
54%
Yes -120
No +120
war closes 2026-12-31
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
4%
Yes +2400
No -2400
war closes 2027-01-01
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
69%
Yes -223
No +223
war closes 2027-01-01
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
18%
Yes +441
No -441
war closes 2027-03-31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?
60%
Yes -147
No +147
war closes 2027-11-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?
66%
Yes -190
No +190
war closes 2027-01-01
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
10%
Yes +852
No -852
war closes 2026-12-31
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
8%
Yes +1233
No -1233
war closes 2026-12-31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
12%
Yes +700
No -700
war closes 2027-07-01
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
7%
Yes +1329
No -1329
war closes 2026-10-31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
6%
Yes +1718
No -1718
war closes 2026-11-01
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
8%
Yes +1150
No -1150
war closes 2026-09-16
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?
6%
Yes +1718
No -1718
war closes 2027-01-01
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
4%
Yes +2757
No -2757
war closes 2027-04-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?
41%
Yes +144
No -144
war closes 2027-02-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?
34%
Yes +199
No -199
war closes 2027-01-01
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
7%
Yes +1349
No -1349
war closes 2027-01-01
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
2%
Yes +5456
No -5456
war closes 2027-01-01
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
2%
Yes +3900
No -3900
war closes 2026-12-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?
16%
Yes +545
No -545
war closes 2027-07-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?
54%
Yes -120
No +120
war closes 2027-01-01
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
2%
Yes +5456
No -5456
war closes 2026-09-30
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in September 2026?
2%
Yes +5456
No -5456
war closes 2026-09-30
Will Iran target Syria by September 30, 2026?
4%
Yes +2532
No -2532
war closes 2027-03-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?
38%
Yes +163
No -163
war closes 2026-09-15
Israel military action against Syria by September 15, 2026?
10%
Yes +953
No -953
war closes 2027-01-01
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
7%
Yes +1329
No -1329
war closes 2027-01-01
Will Trump visit Gaza in 2026?
5%
Yes +1900
No -1900
war closes 2026-09-30
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in September 2026?
32%
Yes +208
No -208
war closes 2028-01-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?
69%
Yes -223
No +223
war closes 2026-10-01
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?
2%
Yes +4900
No -4900
war closes 2026-09-30
Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in September 2026?
44%
Yes +125
No -125
war closes 2026-10-01
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
3%
Yes +3348
No -3348
war closes 2026-09-30
Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in September 2026?
17%
Yes +478
No -478
war closes 2027-01-01
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
3%
Yes +3348
No -3348
war closes 2026-09-30
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in September 2026?
5%
Yes +1823
No -1823
war closes 2027-12-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027?
66%
Yes -199
No +199
war closes 2026-12-31
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
4%
Yes +2464
No -2464
politics closes 2026-09-30
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
80%
Yes -388
No +388
politics closes 2028-11-07
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
13%
Yes +666
No -666
politics closes 2026-10-04
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
48%
Yes +106
No -106
politics closes 2027-01-01
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
6%
Yes +1438
No -1438
politics closes 2026-11-03
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
86%
Yes -641
No +641
politics closes 2026-09-13
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
66%
Yes -190
No +190
economy closes 2026-09-16
Fed decision in September? — Hike 25bps
79%
Yes -376
No +376
economy closes 2026-09-16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
20%
Yes +388
No -388
other closes 2027-02-23
College Football National Championship Winner — Texas
↳ wins the whole tournament
14%
Yes +614
No -614
other closes 2026-09-27
Amgen Irish Open Winner — Shane Lowry
83%
Yes -488
No +488
other closes 2026-09-16
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?
1%
Yes +9424
No -9424
other closes 2026-09-13
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?
58%
Yes -138
No +138
other closes 2027-01-01
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
22%
Yes +344
No -344
other closes 2026-10-01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
20%
Yes +413
No -413
wild closes 2026-12-31
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
4%
Yes +2678
No -2678
wild closes 2027-01-01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
4%
Yes +2532
No -2532
wild closes 2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
10%
Yes +953
No -953
wild closes 2026-09-14
Will "Runner" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
99%
Yes -7043
No +7043
wild closes 2026-10-01
Will Elon tweet 760-799 times in September 2026?
10%
Yes +953
No -953
wild closes 2026-12-31
Will Elon Musk be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
8%
Yes +1150
No -1150
wild closes 2026-10-01
Will Elon tweet 960-999 times in September 2026?
10%
Yes +931
No -931
wild closes 2026-10-01
Will Elon tweet 720-759 times in September 2026?
6%
Yes +1654
No -1654
sports closes 2026-09-14
Cruz Azul vs America
↳ YES = Cruz Azul
94%
Yes -1567
No +1567
sports closes 2026-09-15
Barbados Royals vs Jamaica Kingsmen
↳ YES = Jamaica Kingsmen
84%
Yes -525
No +525
sports closes 2026-09-27
Weber vs Simakin — Ilia Simakin
↳ YES = Ilia Simakin
87%
Yes -669
No +669
sports closes 2026-09-15
New Mexico St. vs Hawai'i
↳ YES = Hawai'i
90%
Yes -900
No +900
sports closes 2026-09-13
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13?
↳ 90 minutes only — a draw pays No
44%
Yes +125
No -125
sports closes 2026-09-27
Dyussebay vs Luo — Xi Luo
↳ YES = Xi Luo
61%
Yes -156
No +156
sports closes 2026-09-27
Vishal Balsekar vs Charlton — Aditya Vishal Balsekar
↳ YES = Aditya Vishal Balsekar
77%
Yes -335
No +335
sports closes 2026-09-15
Hanwha Life Esports vs. Gen.G
↳ YES = Gen.G
62%
Yes -163
No +163
sports closes 2026-09-13
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-13?
↳ 90 minutes only — a draw pays No
86%
Yes -590
No +590
sports closes 2026-09-13
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-09-12?
↳ 90 minutes only — a draw pays No
94%
Yes -1567
No +1567
sports closes 2026-09-13
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13?
↳ 90 minutes only — a draw pays No
50%
Yes -102
No +102
sports closes 2026-09-13
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-09-13?
↳ 90 minutes only — a draw pays No
8%
Yes +1233
No -1233