Every call this terminal publishes is timestamped the moment it goes out, then graded automatically against real market prices. Ledger opened Fri Jul 03, 2026. Grades are never edited. Anyone can audit this page.
| Brief | Panic call | S&P 500 next 3 sessions | VIX change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | LOW | +0.45% | -1.02 |
| 2026-08-24 | ELEVATED | +1.02% | -1.34 |
| 2026-08-23 | LOW | +1.02% | -1.34 |
| 2026-08-22 | LOW | +1.02% | -1.34 |
| 2026-08-21 | LOW | +0.02% | +0.08 |
| 2026-08-20 | LOW | +0.47% | -0.56 |
| 2026-08-19 | LOW | -0.72% | +0.96 |
| 2026-08-18 | ELEVATED | -0.23% | -0.71 |
| 2026-08-17 | LOW | -1.34% | +0.82 |
| 2026-08-16 | ELEVATED | -1.34% | +0.82 |
| 2026-08-15 | LOW | -1.34% | +0.82 |
| 2026-08-14 | ELEVATED | -1.00% | +0.64 |
| 2026-08-13 | ELEVATED | -1.37% | +1.21 |
| 2026-08-12 | ELEVATED | -0.04% | +0.64 |
| 2026-08-11 | ELEVATED | +0.74% | -1.03 |
| 2026-08-10 | ELEVATED | +0.59% | -0.83 |
| 2026-08-09 | LOW | +0.59% | -0.83 |
| 2026-08-08 | ELEVATED | +0.59% | -0.83 |
| 2026-08-07 | LOW | -0.12% | -0.35 |
| 2026-08-06 | LOW | +0.24% | +0.13 |
| 2026-08-05 | ELEVATED | +0.38% | -0.35 |
| 2026-08-04 | LOW | +0.27% | -1.60 |
| 2026-08-03 | LOW | +1.44% | -0.71 |
| 2026-08-02 | LOW | +1.44% | -0.71 |
| 2026-08-01 | LOW | +1.44% | -0.71 |
| 2026-07-31 | LOW | +3.12% | -0.18 |
| 2026-07-30 | LOW | +4.02% | -0.59 |
| 2026-07-29 | ELEVATED | +3.89% | -4.80 |
| 2026-07-28 | ELEVATED | +0.82% | -2.22 |
| 2026-07-27 | LOW | +0.33% | -1.58 |
| Called | The call | Verdict | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | The VIX touches 15 within 2 days. Gold Price Surge |
HIT | day low 14.42 crossed 15 (2026-08-27) |
| 2026-08-25 | Bitcoin touches $82,000 within 7 days. AI Rally |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 82,000 (last close 77,399) (2026-09-01) |
| 2026-08-25 | The 10Y yield drops below 46 within 5 days. Iran War Escalation |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 46 (last close 47.3) (2026-08-28) |
| 2026-08-24 | The 10-year yield touches 47.9214 within 4 days. Iran Sanctions |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 47.92 (last close 47.3) (2026-08-28) |
| 2026-08-24 | The VIX touches 14.9636 within 3 days. Nvidia Earnings |
HIT | day low 14.42 crossed 14.96 (2026-08-27) |
| 2026-08-24 | The S&P 500 touches 7758.79 within 5 days. Nvidia Earnings |
HIT | day high 7,771 crossed 7,759 (2026-08-28) |
| 2026-08-23 | The US 10Y yield touches 48% within 7 days, indicating a potential increase in global trade tensions. Global Trade Tensions |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 48 (last close 47.3) (2026-08-28) |
| 2026-08-23 | The VIX touches 16 within 4 days, indicating a potential increase in Bitcoin volatility. Bitcoin Volatility |
HIT | day high 16.06 crossed 16 (2026-08-24) |
| 2026-08-23 | Bitcoin touches $76,000 within 2 days, indicating a potential price drop. Bitcoin Volatility |
HIT | day low 75,538 crossed 76,000 (2026-08-23) |
| 2026-08-23 | The US 10Y yield touches 48.5% within 5 days, indicating a potential oil price spike. Oil Price Spike |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 48.5 (last close 47.3) (2026-08-28) |
| 2026-08-22 | VIX index falls below 14 within 3 days. Bitcoin Price Volatility |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 14 (last close 15.45) (2026-08-25) |
| 2026-08-22 | Bitcoin price touches $80,000 within 10 days. Bitcoin Price Volatility |
HIT | day high 81,265 crossed 80,000 (2026-08-25) |
| 2026-08-22 | US 10Y yield falls below 46% within 3 days. Iran-US Tensions Escalate |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 46 (last close 46.4) (2026-08-25) |
| 2026-08-21 | The 10-year Treasury yield touches 47.5 within 3 days, signaling a rise in investor anxiety about the oil market. Oil Prices Remain Volatile |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 47.5 (last close 47) (2026-08-24) |
| 2026-08-20 | S&P 500 closes above 7792.77 within 6 days Global Economic Uncertainty |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,793 (last close 7,676) (2026-08-26) |
| 2026-08-20 | VIX touches 14.7 within 2 days Global Economic Uncertainty |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 14.73 (last close 15.13) (2026-08-21) |
| 2026-08-20 | EUR/USD closes below 1.14773 within 4 days China-Ukraine Tensions Rise |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 1.148 (last close 1.166) (2026-08-24) |
| 2026-08-20 | Bitcoin price touches $72.5K within 7 days China-Ukraine Tensions Rise |
HIT | day high 73,391 crossed 72,557 (2026-08-20) |
| 2026-08-20 | S&P 500 closes below 7623.19 within 3 days US-Iran Tensions Escalate |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,623 (last close 7,674) (2026-08-21) |
| 2026-08-20 | US 10Y yield touches 4.7% within 5 days US-Iran Tensions Escalate |
HIT | day high 47.4 crossed 47.01 (2026-08-21) |
| 2026-08-19 | VIX touches 15.67 within 2 days AI and Chip Stocks Slump |
HIT | day low 14.77 crossed 15.67 (2026-08-19) |
| 2026-08-19 | EUR/USD touches 1.17 within 6 days AI and Chip Stocks Slump |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 1.17 (last close 1.166) (2026-08-25) |
| 2026-08-19 | Bitcoin price touches $63,636 within 4 days Middle East Conflict Ripples |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 63,636 (last close 77,729) (2026-08-23) |
| 2026-08-19 | US 10Y yield touches 47.62 within 7 days Middle East Conflict Ripples |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 47.62 (last close 46.6) (2026-08-26) |
| 2026-08-19 | VIX touches 16.01 within 3 days Iran-Europe Tensions Escalate |
HIT | day high 16.14 crossed 16.01 (2026-08-20) |
| 2026-08-18 | The VIX touches 15.4 within 5 days. Bitcoin Price Volatility |
HIT | day high 16.09 crossed 15.4 (2026-08-18) |
| 2026-08-18 | Bitcoin touches $65,000 within 10 days. Bitcoin Price Volatility |
HIT | day high 65,020 crossed 65,000 (2026-08-18) |
| 2026-08-18 | The 10-year US Treasury yield touches 48 within 5 days. Global Bond Rout Deepens |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 48 (last close 47.4) (2026-08-21) |
| 2026-08-18 | The 10-year US Treasury yield touches 48 within 5 days. US-Iran Tensions Escalate |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 48 (last close 47.4) (2026-08-21) |
| 2026-08-17 | Bitcoin falls below 60,400 within 4 days Bitcoin price volatility |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 60,400 (last close 78,326) (2026-08-21) |
| 2026-08-17 | EUR/USD touches above 1.169 within 8 days Middle East energy supply shock |
HIT | day high 1.17 crossed 1.169 (2026-08-21) |
| 2026-08-17 | VIX climbs above 16.0 within 7 days Fed rate surprise risk |
HIT | day high 16.09 crossed 16 (2026-08-18) |
| 2026-08-17 | US 10-year yield touches 47.3 within 5 days Fed rate surprise risk |
HIT | day high 47.4 crossed 47.3 (2026-08-21) |
| 2026-08-16 | S&P 500 touches 7500 within 8 days US rate‑hike pressure on equities |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,500 (last close 7,653) (2026-08-24) |
| 2026-08-16 | S&P 500 touches 7600 within 6 days Middle East oil supply risk |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,600 (last close 7,674) (2026-08-21) |
| 2026-08-16 | VIX touches 15 within 5 days Ukraine war escalation |
HIT | day high 15.47 crossed 15 (2026-08-17) |
| 2026-08-15 | BTC-USD closes below 60000 within 5 days Bitcoin price volatility |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 60,000 (last close 73,012) (2026-08-20) |
| 2026-08-15 | ^VIX touches above 16.0 within 6 days Hormuz blockade oil supply risk |
HIT | day high 16.09 crossed 16 (2026-08-18) |
| 2026-08-15 | ^VIX touches above 15.0 within 5 days Rising US Treasury yields |
HIT | day high 15.47 crossed 15 (2026-08-17) |
| 2026-08-15 | ^TNX closes above 48.0 within 7 days Rising US Treasury yields |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 48 (last close 47.4) (2026-08-21) |
| 2026-08-14 | US 10‑year yield closes below 45.0 within 6 days US rate cut uncertainty |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 45 (last close 46.9) (2026-08-20) |
| 2026-08-14 | VIX climbs above 15.5 within 4 days AI financing bubble risk |
HIT | day high 16.09 crossed 15.5 (2026-08-18) |
| 2026-08-14 | VIX rises above 15.0 within 5 days Iran-Hormuz oil supply risk |
HIT | day high 15.47 crossed 15 (2026-08-17) |
| 2026-08-14 | S&P 500 falls below 7,700 within 7 days Iran-Hormuz oil supply risk |
HIT | day low 7,689 crossed 7,700 (2026-08-18) |
| 2026-08-13 | Bitcoin touches below 62,800 within 3 days Bitcoin price correction risk |
HIT | day low 62,773 crossed 62,800 (2026-08-13) |
| 2026-08-13 | US 10Y yield closes above 47.4 within 6 days Middle East conflict escalation |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 47.4 (last close 46.5) (2026-08-19) |
| 2026-08-13 | VIX touches above 14.72 within 5 days Oil price volatility spikes |
HIT | day high 14.8 crossed 14.72 (2026-08-13) |
| 2026-08-13 | S&P 500 touches above 7,835 within 5 days Oil price volatility spikes |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,835 (last close 7,692) (2026-08-18) |
| 2026-08-12 | Bitcoin touches below 58,000 within 5 days Crypto market downside pressure |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 58,000 (last close 64,484) (2026-08-17) |
| 2026-08-12 | S&P 500 closes below 7500 within 4 days US inflation surprise risk |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,500 (last close 7,786) (2026-08-14) |
| 2026-08-12 | VIX touches above 17 within 3 days US inflation surprise risk |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 17 (last close 14.25) (2026-08-14) |
| 2026-08-12 | US 10Y yield closes above 55 within 7 days Middle East oil supply disruption |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 55 (last close 46.5) (2026-08-19) |
| 2026-08-11 | Bitcoin price closes below 62000 within 4 days Bitcoin price swing risk |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 62,000 (last close 63,019) (2026-08-15) |
| 2026-08-11 | US 10Y yield closes above 50 within 5 days US rate policy volatility |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 50 (last close 46.8) (2026-08-14) |
| 2026-08-11 | S&P 500 touches 8200 within 5 days Hormuz Strait oil supply disruption |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 8,200 (last close 7,786) (2026-08-14) |
| 2026-08-11 | VIX touches 17 within 6 days Hormuz Strait oil supply disruption |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 17 (last close 15.19) (2026-08-17) |
| 2026-08-10 | US 10Y yield closes above 48 within 4 days US yields slip, inflation data in focus |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 48 (last close 46.8) (2026-08-14) |
| 2026-08-10 | S&P 500 touches 7500 within 7 days AI cybersecurity scares pressure tech stocks |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,500 (last close 7,745) (2026-08-17) |
| 2026-08-10 | VIX touches 16 within 5 days Iran‑Hormuz Strait tensions threaten oil flow |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 16 (last close 14.25) (2026-08-14) |
| 2026-08-09 | S&P 500 closes above 8000 within 7 days AI energy demand pressures power grid |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 8,000 (last close 7,786) (2026-08-14) |
| 2026-08-09 | 10-year yield closes below 44 within 6 days US rate volatility looms |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 44 (last close 46.8) (2026-08-14) |
| 2026-08-09 | VIX touches 18 within 4 days Middle East escalation threatens oil supply |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 18 (last close 14.63) (2026-08-13) |
| 2026-08-09 | XLE touches $62 within 5 days Middle East escalation threatens oil supply |
HIT | day high 62.11 crossed 62 (2026-08-14) |
| 2026-08-08 | Bitcoin closes below 64000 within 4 days Bitcoin security vulnerability |
HIT | close 63,912 below 64,000 (2026-08-10) |
| 2026-08-08 | US 10Y yield touches 48 within 6 days US rate trajectory uncertainty |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 48 (last close 46.8) (2026-08-14) |
| 2026-08-08 | S&P 500 closes below 7600 within 7 days Middle East conflict escalation |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,600 (last close 7,786) (2026-08-14) |
| 2026-08-08 | VIX touches 16 within 5 days Middle East conflict escalation |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 16 (last close 14.63) (2026-08-13) |
| 2026-08-07 | Bitcoin touches 55,000 within 6 days Bitcoin ETF flow stirs crypto volatility |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 55,000 (last close 63,425) (2026-08-13) |
| 2026-08-07 | US 10Y yield closes above 55 within 4 days Fed rate outlook fuels market uncertainty |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 55 (last close 47) (2026-08-11) |
| 2026-08-07 | S&P 500 closes below 7300 within 7 days Hormuz shipping disruption spikes oil risk |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,300 (last close 7,786) (2026-08-14) |
| 2026-08-07 | VIX touches 18 within 5 days Hormuz shipping disruption spikes oil risk |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 18 (last close 14.55) (2026-08-12) |
| 2026-08-06 | Bitcoin falls below 58,000 within 7 days Bitcoin miner exodus pressure |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 58,000 (last close 63,425) (2026-08-13) |
| 2026-08-06 | S&P 500 closes below 7500 within 6 days Rising US yields pressure equities |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,500 (last close 7,748) (2026-08-12) |
| 2026-08-06 | 10-year yield touches 55 within 4 days Rising US yields pressure equities |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 55 (last close 47.2) (2026-08-10) |
| 2026-08-06 | VIX touches 17 within 5 days Hormuz deal uncertainty |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 17 (last close 15.28) (2026-08-11) |
| 2026-08-05 | Bitcoin touches $65,000 within 7 days. AI-Related Security Breaches |
HIT | day high 65,349 crossed 65,000 (2026-08-07) |
| 2026-08-05 | The VIX touches 16.0 within 4 days. AI-Related Security Breaches |
HIT | day low 15.48 crossed 16 (2026-08-05) |
| 2026-08-05 | The 10Y yield touches 47.5% within 5 days. Middle East Tensions Escalate |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 47.5 (last close 47.2) (2026-08-10) |
| 2026-08-04 | The VIX touches 15.5 within 5 days. Gold Price Forecast |
HIT | day low 15.48 crossed 15.5 (2026-08-05) |
| 2026-08-04 | The US 10Y yield touches 46.5 within 5 days. US-Iran Tensions Escalate |
HIT | day low 46.3 crossed 46.5 (2026-08-04) |
| 2026-08-03 | VIX touches 16.17 within 2 days. AI Market Turbulence |
HIT | day high 16.3 crossed 16.17 (2026-08-03) |
| 2026-08-03 | US 10Y yield touches 48.5 within 5 days. Global Energy Crisis Looms |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 48.5 (last close 46.5) (2026-08-07) |
| 2026-08-03 | US 10Y yield touches 48.5 within 5 days. US-Iran Tensions Escalate |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 48.5 (last close 46.5) (2026-08-07) |
| 2026-08-02 | US 10Y yield touches 48 within 8 days. Global Economic Uncertainty |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 48 (last close 47.2) (2026-08-10) |
| 2026-08-02 | VIX index touches 17 within 4 days. Bitcoin Price Volatility |
HIT | day high 18.43 crossed 17 (2026-08-05) |
| 2026-08-02 | S&P 500 touches 7400 within 3 days. Iran War Escalation |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,400 (last close 7,724) (2026-08-05) |
| 2026-08-02 | US 10Y yield drops below 46.5 within 5 days. Iran War Escalation |
HIT | day low 46.3 crossed 46.5 (2026-08-04) |
| 2026-08-01 | The US 10Y yield touches 46.5 or lower within 2 days. Energy Crisis and Oil Prices |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 46.5 (last close 47) (2026-08-03) |
| 2026-08-01 | Bitcoin touches $62,000 or lower within 4 days. AI Model Hacking Concerns |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 62,000 (last close 64,603) (2026-08-05) |
| 2026-08-01 | The VIX touches 15 or lower within 3 days. Escalating US-Iran Tensions |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 15 (last close 16.5) (2026-08-04) |
| 2026-07-31 | Bitcoin price touches 60,000 within 6 days AI regulatory scrutiny |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 60,000 (last close 64,267) (2026-08-06) |
| 2026-07-31 | S&P 500 closes below 7300 within 4 days US‑Iran escalation risk |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,300 (last close 7,737) (2026-08-04) |
| 2026-07-31 | VIX rises above 20 within 3 days US‑Iran escalation risk |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 20 (last close 15.86) (2026-08-03) |
| 2026-07-31 | US 10-year yield touches 48 within 5 days Hormuz Strait shipping disruption |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 48 (last close 46.3) (2026-08-05) |
| 2026-07-30 | Bitcoin touches 68,000 within 8 days Crypto steadies amid equity stress |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 68,000 (last close 64,892) (2026-08-07) |
| 2026-07-30 | 10‑year yield closes above 48 within 4 days Fed holds rates, yields stay elevated |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 48 (last close 47) (2026-08-03) |
| 2026-07-30 | S&P 500 closes below 7200 within 7 days Iran-US conflict spikes oil volatility |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,200 (last close 7,710) (2026-08-06) |
| 2026-07-30 | VIX touches 22 within 5 days Iran-US conflict spikes oil volatility |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 22 (last close 16.5) (2026-08-04) |
| 2026-07-29 | EUR/USD touches 1.12 within 5 days South Korea chip stock rout |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 1.12 (last close 1.153) (2026-08-03) |
| 2026-07-29 | Bitcoin touches $70,000 within 7 days Middle East war spikes oil risk |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 70,000 (last close 64,603) (2026-08-05) |
| 2026-07-29 | S&P 500 touches 7300 within 6 days Middle East war spikes oil risk |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,300 (last close 7,737) (2026-08-04) |
| 2026-07-29 | VIX closes above 20 within 4 days Fed rate decision pressure |
HIT | close 20.66 above 20 (2026-07-29) |
| 2026-07-29 | US 10-year yield touches 48 within 5 days Fed rate decision pressure |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 48 (last close 47) (2026-08-03) |
| 2026-07-28 | S&P 500 closes above 7,500 within 7 days Fed policy uncertainty amid bond stress |
HIT | close 7,600 above 7,500 (2026-08-03) |
| 2026-07-28 | US 10‑year yield closes below 45 within 4 days Oil price volatility from Iran‑US tension |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 45 (last close 47.5) (2026-07-31) |
| 2026-07-28 | VIX touches 20 within 5 days AI chip sell‑off pressure |
HIT | day high 20.88 crossed 20 (2026-07-29) |
| 2026-07-28 | S&P 500 touches 7,300 within 5 days AI chip sell‑off pressure |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,300 (last close 7,490) (2026-07-31) |
| 2026-07-27 | S&P 500 closes below 7,200 within 5 days Bitcoin Near Fed Decision |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,200 (last close 7,490) (2026-07-31) |
| 2026-07-27 | Bitcoin closes below 62,000 within 4 days Bitcoin Near Fed Decision |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 62,000 (last close 62,826) (2026-07-31) |
| 2026-07-27 | 10-year yield touches 55 within 6 days US Yield Upside Pressure |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 55 (last close 47.5) (2026-07-31) |
| 2026-07-27 | VIX touches 22 within 5 days Middle East Tension Volatility |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 22 (last close 15.99) (2026-07-31) |
| 2026-07-26 | S&P 500 closes below 7,300 within 7 days AI stock pullback after hype |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,300 (last close 7,490) (2026-07-31) |
| 2026-07-26 | BTC-USD closes above 66,000 within 6 days Bitcoin holds above $64k amid Fed watch |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 66,000 (last close 62,764) (2026-08-01) |
| 2026-07-26 | BTC-USD touches 63,000 within 4 days Bitcoin holds above $64k amid Fed watch |
HIT | day low 62,645 crossed 63,000 (2026-07-28) |
| 2026-07-26 | VIX touches 20 within 5 days Iran-Hormuz conflict threatens oil flow |
HIT | day high 20.88 crossed 20 (2026-07-29) |
| 2026-07-25 | Bitcoin touches $62,000 within 4 days Bitcoin price slides below $64k |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 62,000 (last close 63,896) (2026-07-29) |
| 2026-07-25 | US 10Y yield touches 48 within 6 days Oil supply crunch pushes prices |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 48 (last close 47.5) (2026-07-31) |
| 2026-07-25 | S&P 500 touches below 7200 within 6 days Middle East conflict escalation |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,200 (last close 7,490) (2026-07-31) |
| 2026-07-25 | VIX touches 22 within 5 days Middle East conflict escalation |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 22 (last close 17.09) (2026-07-30) |
| 2026-07-24 | Bitcoin climbs above $72,000 within seven days as investors seek alternative stores of value amid regional energy turmoil. Maryland energy crisis |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 72,000 (last close 62,826) (2026-07-31) |
| 2026-07-24 | S&P 500 touches 7,200 within six days as energy‑sector strain weighs on the market. Maryland energy crisis |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,200 (last close 7,438) (2026-07-30) |
| 2026-07-24 | S&P 500 closes above 7,500 within three days if rate concerns ease. Fed rate‑rise expectations |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,500 (last close 7,413) (2026-07-27) |
| 2026-07-24 | US 10‑year yield closes above 50 within four days as rate‑hike bets intensify. Fed rate‑rise expectations |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 50 (last close 46.1) (2026-07-28) |
| 2026-07-24 | VIX touches 22 within five days as war tension fuels market fear. US‑Iran war escalation |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 22 (last close 20.66) (2026-07-29) |
| 2026-07-23 | Bitcoin touches 62000 within 6 days AI security breach regulatory risk |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 62,000 (last close 63,896) (2026-07-29) |
| 2026-07-23 | US 10Y yield closes above 48 within 4 days US Treasury yield surge |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 48 (last close 46.5) (2026-07-27) |
| 2026-07-23 | S&P 500 closes below 7300 within 7 days Middle East oil supply shock |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,300 (last close 7,438) (2026-07-30) |
| 2026-07-23 | VIX touches 18 within 5 days Middle East oil supply shock |
HIT | day high 20.31 crossed 18 (2026-07-23) |
| 2026-07-22 | US 10‑year yield touches above 50.0 within 6 days Rising US Treasury yields |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 50 (last close 46.1) (2026-07-28) |
| 2026-07-22 | Bitcoin USD price closes below 62,000 within 4 days Crypto downside pressure |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 62,000 (last close 65,341) (2026-07-26) |
| 2026-07-22 | VIX touches below 16.0 within 5 days Oil price surge from Iran conflict |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 16 (last close 18.67) (2026-07-27) |
| 2026-07-22 | S&P 500 closes above 7,585 within 5 days Oil price surge from Iran conflict |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,585 (last close 7,413) (2026-07-27) |
| 2026-07-21 | EUR/USD closes below 1.12 within 5 days Crypto markets react to geopolitical stress |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 1.12 (last close 1.138) (2026-07-24) |
| 2026-07-21 | Bitcoin touches $70,000 within 6 days Crypto markets react to geopolitical stress |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 70,000 (last close 63,694) (2026-07-27) |
| 2026-07-21 | S&P 500 closes below 7300 within 4 days US‑Iran escalation pressures US equities |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,300 (last close 7,412) (2026-07-24) |
| 2026-07-21 | VIX touches 20 within 5 days Middle East conflict spikes oil risk |
HIT | day high 20.31 crossed 20 (2026-07-23) |
| 2026-07-20 | US 10‑year yield closes above 47 within 3 days South Korean margin‑loan stress fuels equity sell‑off |
HIT | close 47.1 above 47 (2026-07-23) |
| 2026-07-20 | EUR/USD closes below 1.12 within 4 days China's state‑backed buying masks market fragility |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 1.12 (last close 1.138) (2026-07-24) |
| 2026-07-20 | S&P 500 touches 7300 within 7 days US‑Iran conflict spikes oil volatility |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,300 (last close 7,413) (2026-07-27) |
| 2026-07-20 | VIX touches 22 within 5 days US‑Iran conflict spikes oil volatility |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 22 (last close 18.58) (2026-07-24) |
| 2026-07-19 | Bitcoin touches 60000 within 4 days Crypto market volatility risk |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 60,000 (last close 65,051) (2026-07-23) |
| 2026-07-19 | 10‑year Treasury yield closes above 48 within 6 days Oil supply shock risk |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 48 (last close 46.9) (2026-07-24) |
| 2026-07-19 | S&P 500 closes below 7300 within 7 days Middle East escalation risk |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,300 (last close 7,412) (2026-07-24) |
| 2026-07-19 | VIX touches 20 within 5 days Middle East escalation risk |
HIT | day high 20.31 crossed 20 (2026-07-23) |
| 2026-07-18 | S&P 500 closes below 7300 within 6 days Equity markets vulnerable to war volatility |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,300 (last close 7,412) (2026-07-24) |
| 2026-07-18 | Bitcoin touches $60,000 within 8 days Strait of Hormuz tension pressures dollar |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 60,000 (last close 65,341) (2026-07-26) |
| 2026-07-18 | EUR/USD closes below 1.10 within 7 days Strait of Hormuz tension pressures dollar |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 1.1 (last close 1.138) (2026-07-24) |
| 2026-07-18 | The VIX touches 20 within 5 days Middle East conflict spikes oil risk |
HIT | day high 20.31 crossed 20 (2026-07-23) |
| 2026-07-17 | Bitcoin touches $64,000 within 5 days. Bitcoin Volatility |
HIT | day high 64,013 crossed 64,000 (2026-07-17) |
| 2026-07-17 | Bitcoin closes below $62,000 within 10 days. Bitcoin Volatility |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 62,000 (last close 63,694) (2026-07-27) |
| 2026-07-17 | The VIX touches 17.0 within 2 days. Global Tech Selloff |
HIT | day high 19.5 crossed 17 (2026-07-17) |
| 2026-07-17 | The US 10Y yield touches 46.5% within 5 days. US-Iran Conflict Escalation |
HIT | close 46.7 above 46.5 (2026-07-22) |
| 2026-07-16 | Bitcoin touches $63,430 within 6 days, reflecting investor concerns about global economic stability and potential contagion from energy security risks. Global Energy Security |
HIT | day low 62,588 crossed 63,431 (2026-07-17) |
| 2026-07-16 | The US 10Y yield touches 46.0% within 3 days, indicating growing concerns about inflation and conflict risks to global energy security. Global Energy Security |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 46 (last close 45.5) (2026-07-17) |
| 2026-07-16 | The VIX touches 15.8 within 4 days, indicating growing concerns about market volatility and potential contagion from South Korea's debt-heavy market. South Korea Debt-Heavy Market |
HIT | day high 17.23 crossed 15.84 (2026-07-16) |
| 2026-07-16 | The S&P 500 touches 7489 within 5 days, reflecting investor concerns about global economic stability and potential contagion from South Korea's debt-heavy market. South Korea Debt-Heavy Market |
HIT | day low 7,431 crossed 7,489 (2026-07-17) |
| 2026-07-16 | The S&P 500 touches 7489 within 3 days, reflecting investor concerns about global economic stability and conflict risks. Iran Conflict Escalation |
HIT | day low 7,431 crossed 7,489 (2026-07-17) |
| 2026-07-16 | The US 10Y yield touches 46.0% within 5 days, indicating growing concerns about inflation and conflict risks. Iran Conflict Escalation |
HIT | day high 46.3 crossed 46 (2026-07-21) |
| 2026-07-15 | Bitcoin touches $65,317 within 7 days. Bitcoin Price Movement |
HIT | day high 65,560 crossed 65,317 (2026-07-15) |
| 2026-07-15 | The 10Y yield touches 46.3 within 5 days. Oil Price Volatility |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 46.3 (last close 46) (2026-07-20) |
| 2026-07-15 | The 10Y yield touches 46.3 within 3 days. Escalating US-Iran Conflict |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 46.3 (last close 45.5) (2026-07-17) |
| 2026-07-15 | The S&P 500 touches 7627 within 5 days. Escalating US-Iran Conflict |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,627 (last close 7,443) (2026-07-20) |
| 2026-07-14 | The EUR/USD touches 1.13 within 8 days. Global Economic Uncertainty |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 1.13 (last close 1.141) (2026-07-22) |
| 2026-07-14 | The S&P 500 closes above 7598 within 6 days. Global Economic Uncertainty |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,598 (last close 7,443) (2026-07-20) |
| 2026-07-14 | Bitcoin closes below $62,038 within 4 days. Iran War Escalation |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 62,038 (last close 64,796) (2026-07-18) |
| 2026-07-14 | The VIX touches 17.35 within 3 days. Iran War Escalation |
HIT | day high 17.56 crossed 17.35 (2026-07-14) |
| 2026-07-14 | The S&P 500 closes below 7433 within 7 days. Oil Price Surge |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,433 (last close 7,509) (2026-07-21) |
| 2026-07-14 | The US 10Y yield touches 4.67% within 5 days. Oil Price Surge |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 46.71 (last close 45.5) (2026-07-17) |
| 2026-07-13 | VIX touches 15.2 within 2 days. China's AI and Tech Sector |
HIT | day high 17.41 crossed 15.2 (2026-07-13) |
| 2026-07-13 | Bitcoin price touches $62,000 within 7 days. Global Economic Impact of Oil Price Spikes |
HIT | day low 61,751 crossed 62,000 (2026-07-13) |
| 2026-07-13 | US 10Y yield touches 46.2 within 3 days. Iran-US Conflict Escalates |
HIT | day high 46.2 crossed 46.2 (2026-07-13) |
| 2026-07-12 | VIX index touches 15.5 within 8 days, driven by increased market volatility in response to global economic uncertainty. Global Economic Uncertainty |
HIT | day high 17.41 crossed 15.5 (2026-07-13) |
| 2026-07-12 | Bitcoin falls below $63,000 within 4 days, driven by increased risk aversion in the market due to AI sector volatility. AI Sector Volatility |
HIT | day low 62,461 crossed 63,000 (2026-07-13) |
| 2026-07-10 | The VIX touches 18 within 10 days. Global Economic Uncertainty |
HIT | day high 19.5 crossed 18 (2026-07-17) |
| 2026-07-10 | The 10-year US yield touches 4.45% within 5 days. SK Hynix IPO and AI Appetite |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 44.5 (last close 45.5) (2026-07-15) |
| 2026-07-10 | The 10-year US yield touches 4.65% within 5 days. US-Iran Tensions Escalate |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 46.5 (last close 45.5) (2026-07-15) |
| 2026-07-09 | The VIX touches 18.2 within 8 days. Bitcoin Price Sensitivity |
HIT | day high 19.5 crossed 18.2 (2026-07-17) |
| 2026-07-09 | Bitcoin touches $59600 within 6 days. Bitcoin Price Sensitivity |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 59,600 (last close 64,717) (2026-07-15) |
| 2026-07-09 | The 10Y yield touches 4.65% within 4 days. Gold Price Volatility |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 46.5 (last close 46.2) (2026-07-13) |
| 2026-07-09 | The 10Y yield touches 4.62% within 5 days. US-Iran Conflict Escalation |
HIT | day high 46.2 crossed 46.2 (2026-07-13) |
| 2026-07-08 | US 10Y yield closes below 44.5 within 7 days Global Market Volatility |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 44.5 (last close 45.5) (2026-07-15) |
| 2026-07-07 | EUR/USD closes below 1.129 within 8 days US‑China diplomatic tension |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 1.129 (last close 1.141) (2026-07-15) |
| 2026-07-07 | S&P 500 touches 7386 within 5 days AI valuation correction |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,386 (last close 7,575) (2026-07-10) |
| 2026-07-07 | VIX touches 16.35 within 5 days AI valuation correction |
HIT | day high 16.64 crossed 16.35 (2026-07-07) |
| 2026-07-07 | S&P 500 touches 7613 within 7 days Hormuz shipping disruption |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,613 (last close 7,544) (2026-07-14) |
| 2026-07-06 | The S&P 500 touches 7400 within 2 days. China's AI Ambitions |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7400 (last close 7483) (2026-07-08) |
| 2026-07-06 | The VIX touches 17 within 4 days. Energy Crisis Deepens |
HIT | day high 18.91 crossed 17 (2026-07-08) |
| 2026-07-06 | Bitcoin touches $62,000 within 7 days. Energy Crisis Deepens |
HIT | day low 61,250 crossed 62,000 (2026-07-06) |
| 2026-07-05 | S&P 500 closes above 7600 within 8 days US rate-policy uncertainty persists |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,600 (last close 7,515) (2026-07-13) |
| 2026-07-05 | Bitcoin touches 58000 within 5 days Ukraine strikes Russian oil terminals |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 58,000 (last close 64,130) (2026-07-10) |
| 2026-07-05 | 10-year Treasury yield closes above 48 within 6 days Ukraine strikes Russian oil terminals |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 48 (last close 45.6) (2026-07-10) |
| 2026-07-05 | S&P 500 touches 7300 within 7 days Iran leadership threat escalation |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,300 (last close 7,575) (2026-07-10) |
| 2026-07-05 | VIX touches 18 within 5 days Iran leadership threat escalation |
HIT | day high 18.91 crossed 18 (2026-07-08) |
| 2026-07-04 | Bitcoin touches 60,000 within 3 days Bitcoin volatility persists |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 60,000 (last close 63,320) (2026-07-07) |
| 2026-07-04 | S&P 500 closes below 7400 within 7 days Iran crisis threatens oil supply |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 7,400 (last close 7,575) (2026-07-10) |
| 2026-07-04 | 10‑year yield touches 46 within 7 days Iran crisis threatens oil supply |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 46 (last close 45.6) (2026-07-10) |
| 2026-07-04 | VIX touches 18 within 5 days Ukraine strikes Russian oil terminal |
HIT | day high 18.91 crossed 18 (2026-07-08) |
| 2026-07-03 | VIX closes above 18.0 within 3 days Market Downturn |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 18 (last close 15.57) (2026-07-06) |
| 2026-07-03 | Bitcoin touches $65,000.0 within 10 days Bitcoin Volatility |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 65,000 (last close 62,265) (2026-07-13) |
| 2026-07-03 | US 10Y yield closes below 44.0 within 7 days Oil Price Drop |
MISS | deadline passed; never crossed 44 (last close 45.6) (2026-07-10) |
1. Every call names a symbol from a fixed public whitelist, a condition, a level, and a deadline — published in the morning brief and timestamped on insert.
2. touch above/below — graded HIT if any day's trading high/low crosses the level inside the window. close above/below — graded HIT if any daily close does.
3. The window runs from the issue date through the deadline (calendar days). If the deadline passes without a cross, it's a MISS — recorded with the actual price.
4. If a window contains zero trading days (holidays), it extends by 2 days, at most twice, then the call is VOIDed — never silently dropped.
5. Market data: Yahoo Finance daily bars, fetched by an automated job. Once graded, a call's verdict and evidence are immutable. Regenerated briefs VOID their old pending calls visibly instead of deleting them.
6. The panic-meter table above grades our own temperature: what we called LOW or HIGH, next to what the S&P and VIX actually did over the following three sessions.