DAILY RISK BRIEF ☕

Tue Aug 25, 2026 · re-reasoned every morning against the live wire · graded in public

PANIC METER LOW Market shrugs off Iran sanctions, awaiting Nvidia earnings and inflation data.

LATEST RECEIPTS — how our recent calls actually resolved

HIT XLE touches $62 within 5 days day high 62.11 crossed 62 · called 2026-08-09

MISS Bitcoin touches $82,000 within 7 days. deadline passed; never crossed 82,000 (last close 77,399) · called 2026-08-25

MISS The 10Y yield drops below 46 within 5 days. deadline passed; never crossed 46 (last close 47.3) · called 2026-08-25

MISS The US 10Y yield touches 48% within 7 days, indicating a potential increase in global trade tensions. deadline passed; never crossed 48 (last close 47.3) · called 2026-08-23

MISS The 10-year yield touches 47.9214 within 4 days. deadline passed; never crossed 47.92 (last close 47.3) · called 2026-08-24

MISS The US 10Y yield touches 48.5% within 5 days, indicating a potential oil price spike. deadline passed; never crossed 48.5 (last close 47.3) · called 2026-08-23

Full ledger — 32.3% hit rate over 201 graded calls →

01Iran War Escalation

Iran vows to go on the attack after US sanctions, while US prepares to send diplomats back to Middle East embassies.

→ Oil prices extend fall as investors shrug off latest US sanctions on Iran.

WATCH The 10Y yield drops below 46 within 5 days. ^TNX · 5d window

02AI Rally

Nvidia faces growth test as Rubin debut meets AI financing scrutiny, while traders price a one-in-100 chance that Bitcoin reaches $100,000 this month.

→ Nvidia shares set for $280 billion price swing after earnings, options show.

WATCH Bitcoin touches $82,000 within 7 days. BTC-USD · 7d window

03Gold Price Surge

Gold price hits three-month high amid fears over Iran war and Trump economy.

→ Gold extends rally, clears 38.2% Fibonacci at $4,692; $4,900 target in view.

WATCH The VIX touches 15 within 2 days. ^VIX · 2d window

DESK NOTE

Nvidia earnings and inflation data loom large, while oil prices and gold prices continue to move in response to global tensions.

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